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At least eight Republicans have announced they won’t support House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy in 2024 and he’s facing a possible defeat and possibly several defeats. But at this point, there are still less than two weeks until Election Day. As of Wednesday night, McCarthy has lost six straight elections in which Democrats have swept seats from their incumbents, including his current seat in California. And now, it seems likely that one, if not more, of those losses, will result in McCarthy losing his gavel. The latest polling shows him trailing narrowly behind newly-elected freshman Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who was also unopposed in her GOP competition against incumbent Nancy Mace. Greene is widely considered to be an “unofficial frontrunner” among members of the New England Patriots fan base, according to Fox News, so there’s no telling how strong a possibility she might actually become as a candidate should she make that leap from being just another member of the small Congressional delegation. Here are five ways the battle for House Speaker could ultimately end:

1. A new race

Speaker McCarthy already appears to be running out of time. He is up next Tuesday for reelection and has already been surpassed in fundraising by former Trump administration officials Jared Kushner (now chairman of Breitbart) and Dan Scavino (the owner of conservative talk radio). Also, House Republicans picked off some Democratic incumbent incumbents, including Reps. Tom O’Halleran (D-Calif.) and Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), as well as Reps. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.) and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.). That leaves only Cheney after January 6th when lawmakers return. There is still debate over whether the first term limit should allow two terms; but in these circumstances, Republicans may already be looking toward another election sooner rather than later to fill their remaining vacancies. Additionally, given the potential for a mid-term redistricting — with red states such as Florida, Georgia and Texas have seen years of Republican dominance under President Donald Trump — Republicans could choose to stick with their strategy of defending the congressional majority rather than trying to win back power under Speaker. They may instead run on improving upon the party’s policy agenda, as House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn did in 2018 when he defeated John Boehner in the Democratic primary for his old job.

2. More votes for moderates?

If Republicans cannot pick up a few seats in New York and Illinois where moderate Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger lost reelection last November, it makes sense for them to focus their efforts on finding candidates to replace them, starting with perhaps bringing down the number of extreme right-wing voters who remain within their own ranks. After all, that would likely mean giving moderates like Representatives Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and Steve Scalise (R-La.) a chance to fight for their political lives and even potentially reelect them to serve in the upper chamber. If Democrats take either Wisconsin or Ohio and make gains there, then Republicans may have less leverage to worry about. Of course, it’s possible any GOP victory could hurt them much more because that state could lose its open district and allow the Democrat to essentially write his name into history next year. Plus, since many suburban communities within both parties use suburbs in general elections, it’s always good to know where your vote is going since you may need it to elect someone to office.

3. Defeats for Democrats on all fours

The most obvious path forward involves defeating both Pelosi and Schumer for speaker, assuming their respective challengers do not manage to pick off all of the top ten candidates. With enough money, it seems pretty assured that Republicans will find a way to defeat them. In fact, it seems likely they will if they want to keep control of the House — or even get to the two perch they’ve held since 2010. Although that means beating at least 10 members from both sides in every single battleground, Democrats are looking at the high numbers necessary to overcome Senate filibuster rules and pass major legislation without needing 60 votes. It also means losing at least three of their main targets before anything else happens. For whatever reason, that’s exactly what happened earlier this week.

4. Control goes the other direction?

If Republicans somehow manage to upset Democrats in multiple races in key areas, they might win back control at the Capitol. This certainly seems to be a distinct possibility given how bad things look with the Supreme Court now in question. Both President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have said if the court does overturn Roe v. Wade (which, again, seemed inevitable from the start), it will be “a disaster” for American families. Then, there’s how quickly Dems can move ahead on Joe Biden’s healthcare plan, which many people seem certain they’ll have to cut in half. All of these factors would presumably give Democrats a lot more leverage, at least regarding controlling the legislative branch. Given the current climate in Washington, there are plenty of reasons why this outcome wouldn’t necessarily produce as big of an effect as they hope, though. For example, while Biden has made numerous attempts to work towards passing comprehensive healthcare reform, many believe he needs to make significant changes to get the bill through Congress. Regardless, control of Congress doesn’t mean much right now; meaning that Republicans still have an outsized influence over the political battlefield. So, I would imagine this situation would happen if Republicans took the House, particularly as progressives try to gain ground in swing districts. Not that that’s something everyone in charge wants or expects to happen. Instead, the real takeaway from this scenario is that Republicans are still able to play hardball — and that ultimately gives them more resources to pursue far more ambitious goals.

5. Finally, finally…

If Republicans ever gain absolute control of the House next year, expect that the United States becomes a country of lawless lunatics. When you consider that America has never had a president (or congress) elected by popular vote in nearly 200 years — it’s a complete scandal! — we’re really expecting nothing short of wild anarchy and chaos to occur. Sure, the entire system can become corrupt and broken, but that’s something politicians seem intent on doing regardless — even if they’re ignoring it while they focus on winning re-election. So, hopefully, you see me back in my suit and bow tie if I ever manage to make it to the Oval Office.

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